Pakistan's diplomatic pivot faces test in US midterms

US tariffs on Pakistani goods fell from 29 percent to 19 percent in a trade deal signed in July 2025. This reduction reflects a sharp reversal in bilateral relations, moving from a period of strained ties to a partnership that President Donald Trump has publicly praised. As the United States prepares for its midterm elections on November 3, the outcome in Congress may determine whether this new alignment holds.

Trump’s second term has been marked by global economic shifts and a reassessment of traditional alliances. Amid these changes, Pakistan has secured a prominent position in Washington’s foreign policy calculus. In September, addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Trump referred to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as a "terrific man." He credited Sharif and the relationship with the United States with saving 30 million lives, a reference to recent conflict dynamics in the region.

The shift in relations accelerated in May 2025. A four-day war between India and Pakistan ended in a ceasefire on May 10. Trump announced the cessation of hostilities, a move Islamabad acknowledged as mediation. New Delhi has rejected this narrative, maintaining that the war concluded through bilateral discussions. Following this event, Pakistan’s top leadership gained access to the White House. Trump hosted Field Marshal Asim Munir, the head of the Pakistani army, for lunch. This was the first time a serving Pakistani army chief, who is not the country’s president, received such a reception. Trump has since referred to Munir as his "favourite field marshal."

Pakistan’s role extends beyond South Asia into Middle East security. After US and Israeli attacks on Iran in February, Islamabad brokered a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran on April 8. This led to the highest-level direct talks between the two nations since 1979. In June, both sides agreed to a 14-point memorandum of understanding. Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute in Islamabad, stated that Pakistan was able to bring the United States and Iran under one roof after 47 years.

Recent diplomatic efforts have faced hurdles. The 60-day period for further negotiations between the US and Iran expired in mid-August without extension. On October 20, Munir returned to Tehran for his fifth visit since the war began. Iranian officials reported that they had nothing new to offer Washington. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian Parliament Speaker, noted that threats and military maneuvers would not dictate Iran’s decisions. No breakthrough was announced following the meeting.

Domestic politics in the United States present a potential challenge for Islamabad. Trump’s approval rating stood at 30 percent in a Pew Research Center survey conducted between September 28 and October 4. This figure represents a decline from 37 percent in January. Republicans currently face the prospect of losing critical seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Imran Khan, a geopolitical analyst and former Pakistan country director at the United States Institute of Peace, observed that Islamabad’s closeness to Trump has raised its diplomatic profile. He noted, however, that Pakistan has not gained direct tangible benefits from the Americans apart from intangibles such as geopolitical relevance. Khan warned that if Democrats win both chambers, they would prioritize treaty alliances like NATO. In that scenario, he said, the legislature would lean more toward India than Pakistan.

Grace Wermenbol, a former US national security official and senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, suggested that the midterm results could shape US foreign policy in the short term. She also noted that the outcome might foreshadow a change in the White House in 2028 or 2029. For Pakistan, the strategic question is how to position itself regardless of the electoral result. Cheema argued that Pakistan’s strength lies in its Middle East relevance and its role in protecting US interests, rather than relying solely on Trump’s influence.

Pakistan has also engaged with the US on economic fronts beyond tariffs. Memorandums of understanding with US firms regarding minerals, cryptocurrency, and drones have been signed. In October, on the day the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to South African jurist Navi Pillay, Sharif posted on X that Trump played a historic role in advancing peace in South Asia. He stated that Trump’s intervention helped bring Pakistan and India back from the brink and secure a ceasefire that is holding. The November 3 election will test whether this elevated status survives a change in congressional leadership.