Settlement Policy: Israeli Voters See Shift Needed to Avoid Sanctions

The UK government’s move to ban trade with illegal settlements did not dictate the outcome of the recent Israeli general election. However, a majority of Israeli voters now say the government must change its settlement policy if it wants to avoid further sanctions. This finding comes from a new survey conducted last month by the Israeli social research group aChord.

The data challenges the narrative that foreign pressure pushed voters toward Benjamin Netanyahu. In September, UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband imposed a trade ban and wider sanctions on illegal settlements. Critics argued this would drive Israeli voters into Netanyahu’s arms. The survey shows that three-quarters of Netanyahu bloc supporters said these measures did not affect their vote. To the small extent that they did, the shift happened in both directions, leaving no net change.

Awareness of the specific policy was high. Just over 76% of respondents had heard of the UK announcement, though 18% only knew the headline. Four-fifths of those aware of the news correctly identified that the policy applied to the West Bank, not all of Israel. This suggests the confusion that often fuels backlash was not a major factor in this specific polling group.

Voters in the opposition Change bloc, which backs Gadi Eisenkot, placed higher value on relations with the West. For 60% of their supporters, these relations were important or very important in their voting decision. Even so, these relationships ranked fifth among six voting motives. Only 30% of Netanyahu bloc supporters cited Western relations as a similar motivator.

The clearest divergence in opinion concerns the need for policy adjustment. Among voters for the opposition Change bloc, 71% said the government should adapt its settlement policy to avoid escalating sanctions. In contrast, only 14% of Netanyahu bloc voters agreed. Most in that group said the government should continue its policy regardless of the cost.

Across the entire public, 50% said the West Bank settlement and construction policy should be adjusted to avoid sanctions and isolation. Support for this change is strongest among supporters of Arab parties. Hannah Weisfeld, director of the British-Jewish organization Yachad, stated that the research shows the public recognizes the international community will act if there is no policy shift.

Personal financial impact also sways opinion. Only 36% of all surveyed agreed that settlement policy should continue if sanctions on banks led to higher interest rates or difficulties transferring money abroad. The poll indicates that as voters perceive a higher personal price, opposition to the current settlement policy increases.

Views on specific sanction types vary widely. A majority of 52% support sanctions on individual violent settlers, provided they target only those acting violently. However, 70% of Netanyahu bloc supporters oppose foreign sanctions in all circumstances. Support for the specific ban on importing goods from illegal settlements is much lower, with 63% of all respondents opposing the measure.