Gulf States Brace for Potential U.S. Strikes on Iran After Midterms

Brent crude oil prices are 60% higher today than they were before the war began, a direct consequence of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing instability in the Gulf region. This sharp increase in global energy costs reflects the economic pressure that tens of millions of people in the Persian Gulf face as uncertainty mounts ahead of the U.S. midterms.

Over the past 72 hours, Qatar has led intense mediation efforts to prevent new American and Israeli strikes on Iran. Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran, and an Iranian delegation visited Doha. However, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told state media that there is still no definitive conclusion to these talks. He noted discussions about a two-day plan in which Iran would refrain from attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz to allow direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran to resume.

President Donald Trump, speaking at a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago, addressed the possibility of restarting the war. He stated, "We're not in that much of a hurry." Trump claimed that the U.S. and Israel had destroyed almost every piece of military equipment in Iran, including its nuclear capabilities. He added that the U.S. still needs to address one or two sites, a task he said could be completed in 10 minutes.

Despite eight months of war that killed Iran's supreme leader and top military commanders, the regime remains intact. The U.S. and Israel launched the conflict on February 28, with Israel stating its goal was to topple the Iranian government. That objective has not been met. Iran's Revolutionary Guard retains the capability to inflict significant damage on neighboring Gulf Arab countries, which are among the world's largest producers of oil and gas.

In Bahrain, the physical toll of the conflict is visible. The island nation hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. During the first day of the war, Iranian forces struck the 5th Fleet's logistics hub and warehouses. Aya Batrawy, an NPR correspondent reporting from the Manama Dialogue security forum, observed charred warehouses and damaged radar equipment from a nearby highway. The base previously housed 8,000 military personnel but now has fewer than 100.

Bahrain's foreign minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani, addressed the forum this week. He noted that Iran fired missiles and drones at both U.S. military sites and civilian infrastructure. He also cited new threats from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to target undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. Al Zayani described the shared artery as being used as a tool of pressure and threat.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei instructed senior commanders this weekend that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response without geographical limitations. Iranian state media reported that this stance implies new attacks will cause even greater damage than previous strikes. Iran previously hit Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates during the peak of the conflict.

Senior diplomats and military generals in the Gulf report that no one knows exactly what President Trump will decide after the midterms. Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati diplomat, spoke at the summit about the need for wisdom and political tools. He argued that military solutions will only complicate the current scene and will not provide a quick off-ramp to a solution.

Gulf Arab states view Iran as a top security threat but do not want a full-scale war. Even the United Arab Emirates, which has the most hawkish policy on Iran in the region, opposes further conflict. Saudi Arabia is currently struggling to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Economies across the Gulf are suffering, and leaders warn that more attacks will be devastating.

The region remains on edge as it awaits the outcome of the U.S. elections. The decision made by Washington will determine the trajectory of the conflict and the economic stability of the Persian Gulf. The uncertainty has shaken safe havens for investment and tourism, with Dubai cited as an example of a place whose status has been disrupted by the war.