Midterm watch: Latino votes, young turnout, and Texas margins will decide Congress

Voters in Indiana and Kentucky will see their results at 6 p.m. ET, providing the earliest clues on Republican turnout. If Republican-held seats in Indiana’s 5th District and Kentucky’s 6th District remain close or flip to Democrats, it could indicate a significant drop in GOP engagement. In Florida, which spans two time zones, House race results will begin arriving at 7 p.m. ET. Watch Florida’s 22nd District, a seat held by a Democrat but redrawn to favor Republicans, and the 27th District, a heavily Latino area where President Trump won by double digits in 2024. The 27th will serve as a key indicator of how Latino voters are leaning this year.

Independents often decide midterms, yet they vote at lower rates than partisans. Since Donald Trump entered politics, the Republican Party has struggled when it fails to capture at least 46 percent of independent voters. Historical data shows that when Republicans fall below that threshold, they tend to lose control of Congress. This year, the political realignment continues, with blue-collar white voters trending toward the GOP and better-educated white voters shifting toward the Democrats.

The Michigan Senate race is critical for determining which party controls the chamber. If Republicans flip the seat, Democrats would need to win five Republican-held seats instead of four to take control. For Democrat Abdul El-Sayed to win, he must perform well among Black voters in Wayne County. During the Trump era, Democrats have typically needed at least 68 percent support in that county to secure the state, unless they overperform in the suburbs. In 2024, Sen. Elissa Slotkin won with 63 percent in Wayne County, aided by strong suburban results.

Young voters aged 18 to 29 show a sharp drop in turnout between presidential and midterm cycles. While 43 percent of registered young voters cast ballots in presidential races since 1992, that figure falls to 21 percent in midterms. Despite low turnout, this demographic remains vital for Democratic success. Over the last two decades, Democrats have generally fared well when they win this group by more than 20 points. The only exception was 2022, when a 28-point margin helped limit Republican gains in the House, allowing Democrats to retain one Senate seat.

In Texas, no Democrat has won a statewide office since 1994 or a Senate seat in 38 years. Democrat James Talarico leads in polling, but past errors in Texas data make that lead uncertain. His path to victory depends on the gap between Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton. In 2018, Ted Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott yet still took the Senate seat by more than 200,000 votes. If the difference between Abbott and Paxton exceeds 400,000 votes this year, Talarico has a better chance. He also needs to outperform Beto O'Rourke’s 2018 totals in South Texas, where O'Rourke won 64 percent of Latino voters. Talarico must beat O'Rourke's margins in counties like Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb, and Nueces.

Exit polls will reveal how party identification has shifted. Democrats hit a low of 31 percent of the electorate in 2024, down from 39 percent in 2008 and 2010. This decline reflects a more liberal and sometimes disaffected base. However, opposition to Trump remains high, with 53 percent of likely voters strongly disapproving of his job performance in a recent NPR poll. This dissatisfaction may unite the left. Races in Michigan, including the Senate seat and the 7th Congressional District, feature progressive candidates in purple districts. The outcomes there will shape the party's ideological direction heading into the 2028 presidential primary.