Likud members split on Tuesday's outcome as nonprofits push rival turnout

Likud members are divided on the outcome of Tuesday's election, according to a party source. Some leaders believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will win. Others fear a strong turnout effort by voters opposed to the Prime Minister will change the result.

The optimistic faction relies on the internal forecasts of Shlomo Filber, who directs Likud's polling. The source described the internal mood as polarized. "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other," the source said.

Party officials are concerned about a coordinated effort by organizations and nonprofits to mobilize opposition voters. Sources describe a wide-ranging campaign that operated without direct party funding. Tactics included social media pushes, physical signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. The groups also worked to bring Israelis living abroad back to vote.

One Likud source called the activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The source argued these groups provide opposition parties with a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules. The sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts or the claim that the activity was illegal.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claims the committee focused on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use. They argued the committee paid too little attention to the work of the independent organizations.

In preparation for Election Day, Likud is organizing a large ground operation. The party aims to keep right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates. Officials also attempted to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to withdraw from the race. Winter leads the People of Israel party. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan failed to secure his exit, and Sadan later issued a statement supporting Winter.

Likud is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister was raised. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remain undecided.