Lula Reclaims Presidency After Turnout Shifts Deficit

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured a fourth term as president of Brazil, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff held on Sunday. With nearly 99% of ballots counted, Lula received 51.75% of the vote while Bolsonaro, 45, obtained 48.25%. The margin represents a decisive swing from the first round in early October, when Lula, now 80, trailed by 2.2 million votes. He finished the contest ahead by 4.3 million.

The reversal broke a historical pattern in Brazilian politics. Since the return to democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who placed second in the initial vote had ever won the final round. The narrow earlier loss had raised questions about Lula's political future and dampened morale among progressive voters for three weeks.

Lula's allies credited the comeback to higher turnout. Abstention hit a record 21.08% in the first round, a figure that disproportionately hurt Lula because his supporters often live farther from polling stations. In the runoff, the abstention rate fell to 19.21%. Reginaldo Lopes, a key supporter, described the confirmed result as "incredible." He stated that Brazil is sending a message to the world regarding the extreme right and that the country will now "reorganize the democratic forces."

The outcome deals a strategic blow to the Bolsonaro family. Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the defeated candidate, is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. He had anticipated a role in government if his son won. Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest in Brasília, where his son monitored the count. Confirmed victory for Lula was met with anger and bewilderment among the family's supporters.

The result also disrupts the regional alignment preferred by US President Donald Trump. Trump had hoped Brazil would join a bloc of pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, including Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile, and Javier Milei in Argentina.

Public reaction in major cities reflected the intensity of the campaign. On Saturday, more than one million people gathered on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, while a larger crowd marched on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. On Sunday evening, hundreds returned to the avenue to watch the tally, waving red flags. Camilo Buarque, 35, told reporters, "This is democracy."

Frustration was also evident in São Paulo following an alleged attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to disrupt voting by sabotaging public transport in areas that lean toward Lula. Lucas Lopes, 32, called the effort "another coup attempt," noting that the plan failed. Caio Marques, a 40-year-old photographer from Franca, said, "In the first round the left failed. But in the second round they woke up."