Young men: Trump's 2024 base is cooling ahead of midterms

For many young men in the United States, the political alignment that helped Donald Trump win in 2024 is dissolving just before the midterm elections. Nicholas Aparicio, a 20-year-old political science student in Binghamton, New York, voted for Trump last year based on the belief that the president would improve the economy. He now says he feels duped by the campaign promises.

Aparicio, who serves as president of the College of Republicans Binghamton Chapter, is considering skipping the vote entirely next week. He cites growing concerns about job security, housing costs, and the price of gas. The shift in sentiment is not limited to one student. John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Institute, notes that Democrats hold a 26-point lead over Republicans among younger people. His recent data shows that only 9% of young Americans believe the country is on the right track, while 69% express fear about the future.

The disaffection extends to the media personalities who amplified Trump's message in 2024. Right-leaning podcasters such as Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, and Andrew Schulz hosted the president and endorsed his platform during the election cycle. Since then, several have publicly distanced themselves. Schulz told listeners on his podcast Flagrant last year that he regretted voting for Trump. Carlson, host of The Tucker Carlson Show, expressed regret in April, stating he was sorry for misleading people and would be tormented by the decision.

Rogan has criticized Trump twice this year. His objections included the White House hosting a UFC fight and the U.S. war in Iran. Theo Von, another popular podcaster, interviewed New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani in early October. The discussion focused on socialism and affordability. David Sasaki, a director at the American Institute for Boys and Men, views this interview as a clear signal of changing cultural currents among young male listeners.

A Wall Street Journal analysis quantified this media shift. The study found that mentions of Trump by conservative podcasters have dropped by 70% since the 2024 election. The decline occurred in two distinct phases: immediately after the election and again after the Iran war began. Neil Mehta, a reporter at The Wall Street Journal, explained that these creators prioritize perceived authenticity, which makes them influential news sources for young people who lack traditional mentors.

Exit polling data from CBS News indicated that roughly 60,000 Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 voted for Mamdani in 2025. Sasaki argues that assuming young men remain locked into the MAGA base is an error. He says this demographic is more worried about the economy than at any recent point. Many feel they have little job security and cannot imagine buying a home.

Aparicio pointed to the Epstein files as the first major sign of untrustworthiness. He noted that Trump campaigned on releasing the documents but later suggested they did not exist. He also cited the economic conditions and U.S. involvement in the Iran war as factors making life harder. The next step for this voting bloc will be the midterm elections scheduled for next week.

Sasaki believes Trump may be out of step with what young men actually care about in 2026. The group is focused on economic survival rather than political identity. If these voters do not turn out, the outcome of House and potential Senate races could change significantly.