Misiorowski leads new wave as 2026 ace drafters fall short

Fantasy baseball managers who invested in top-tier starting pitchers last year faced a difficult reality check. The three players selected in the first round of most drafts underperformed expectations, a rare occurrence in a position known for its volatility. Only eight of the top 24 starters drafted in 2026 finished the season as top-24 performers, according to FanGraphs data.

The value gap between early and mid-round picks narrowed dramatically. From 2021 through 2025, the top 24 starters by average draft position combined for at least $259.1 in value. In 2026, that total dropped to $227. Meanwhile, pitchers drafted between 25th and 36th returned $155.6 in value, a figure that nearly eclipsed the $158.94 generated by the top 12 picks in the same window.

This shift was driven by a group of unproven talents who exceeded their pre-season valuations. Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers, Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees, and Chase Burns of the Cincinnati Reds led this cohort. Sonny Gray and Zack Wheeler also contributed to the strong performance of the mid-range group, offsetting busts from players like Spencer Strider and Emmett Sheehan.

Misiorowski emerged as the standout performer. He posted a 1.80 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts over 174.1 innings. His 0.80 WHIP ranks as the second-best in MLB history, excluding the shortened 2020 season. His 37.9 percent strikeout rate is also the second-highest in the sport's history, a leap from his 4.36 ERA rookie campaign.

Schlittler followed closely with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and 239 strikeouts. His three-fastball mix and ability to pitch deep into games on a competitive Yankees roster make him a likely candidate for the American League Cy Young Award. While his ERA estimators suggest a regression toward 3.00, his workload and skill set keep him in the ace conversation.

Not all early-round picks stumbled. Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays cemented his status as a top-tier pitcher after the team lifted restrictions on his workload. He finished with a 2.67 ERA and 174 strikeouts, maintaining an ERA under 2.84 in every major league role since 2020. Jesús Luzardo of the Philadelphia Phillies also saw his value rise, with advanced metrics suggesting his inflated ERA in previous seasons was an outlier.

Conversely, some of the most anticipated names failed to deliver. Gabriel Crochet missed the entire season due to injury, having made only six starts before his year ended. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates posted a 3.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but his performance deteriorated sharply in the final four and a half months, with a 4.56 ERA and a strikeout rate that fell to 22 percent in August and September.

The 2027 pool lacks the same concentration of high-upside, low-provenance talent found in the mid-rounds last year. Players like Jared Jones and Walbert Ureña offer young, interesting profiles with established track records, but they do not mirror the explosive growth seen from Misiorowski and Burns. Managers will likely focus on established performers while monitoring the development of new arms, though the specific circumstances of the 2026 draft class are unlikely to repeat.