Tides Reach 8 Feet as Flood Advisories Extend Through Friday

Residents of Southern California coastal cities face extended periods of high water this week as El Niño conditions keep tide levels elevated. The National Weather Service extended flood advisories for all coastal counties through 2 p.m. on Friday, a change from the original expiration time of 1 p.m. on Thursday. This shift indicates that the unusually high tides will linger longer than initially forecast.

Devin Black, a meteorologist for the weather service’s Oxnard office, stated that Orange and San Diego counties are being downgraded from a severe flood warning to a coastal advisory through Friday afternoon. Black noted that reports from the region describe seawater covering low-lying areas and shallow water reaching the base of some structures. These conditions are most acute in specific zones where the geography amplifies the effect of the rising water.

Newport Beach and Long Beach have been the primary areas affected by the flooding this week. In Newport Beach, the Balboa area experienced widespread inundation, while Sunset Beach saw several streets flood and Pacific Coast Highway closed. Calplans to close portions of that highway on Thursday. Long Beach remains a main area of concern, with tides expected to approach 8 feet on Thursday morning before gradually subiding into the weekend.

Black explained that the risk to San Diego and Orange counties was higher due to the angle and magnitude of the swells. These areas are more exposed to a southwesterly swell, which drives water onto the coast. Although tides were high across the region, this specific exposure made the flooding more severe in those southern counties. The weather service confirmed that tides this week broke records, describing them as being on the extreme end of the scale.

Looking ahead, this event may mark the beginning of a long winter season with frequent high tides. Higher tides are expected around the Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Martin Luther King Jr. Day holidays. If a strong storm arrives during those periods, the combination could result in even more severe flooding. This pattern mirrors the historic storm of late January 1983, which occurred during a strong El Niño and caused widespread damage to piers when high tides coincided with a major storm.

Mark Merrifield, director of UC San Diego’s Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, predicted these high sea levels months ago during a town hall. He described them as likely the highest ever recorded on the California coast associated with this event. Merrifield warned that flooding along the Southern California coast would be a major issue for the winter season. The current conditions align with his earlier assessment of the strengthening El Niño.

Scientists attribute the rise in ocean temperatures to a mix of factors, including human-caused climate change, an El Niño-fueled Kelvin wave, and a months-old marine heat wave. The marine heat wave is unrelated to the El Niño itself but contributes to the overall elevation of seawater levels. This combination pushes tides higher than normal astronomical movements alone would cause.

According to scientific analysis, the marine heat wave has caused seawater levels to rise between 1.25 and 1.8 feet higher than they would be from the movement of the moon, Earth, and sun alone. This additional height contributes to the surges of water entering beach cities like Newport Beach and Redondo Beach. The convergence of these events is driving the record-breaking tides observed across the region.